Since the second half of 2021, the growth rate of electricity consumption in many provinces in China has exceeded 17%. Affected by the excessive power load, coupled with the impact of typhoons, floods and other disasters, many cities have to take mitigation measures such as reducing power load, power outage maintenance, and raising power prices. Inner Mongolia, Henan, Sichuan, Zhejiang, Yunnan, Ningxia, etc. Several provinces, cities, and regions have also carried out peak-shifting power consumption campaigns. Local aluminum, metal, chemical and other industrial manufacturing and chemical companies have to stop production and limit production, and production operations have been greatly affected.
It is understood that since August, the western Mengxi area has limited power from 7 to 10 p.m., and the transaction price of coal-fired power generation in the electricity trading market can rise by no more than 10% on the basis of the benchmark price (0.2829 yuan per kWh) ( The upper limit is 0.3112 yuan per kWh).
In Henan, due to the shortage of electricity and coal transportation, the operating rate of Jinshan Chemical, Zhongyuan Chemical and other enterprises fell below 70%. Some aluminum processing companies in Zhengzhou and Luoyang said they have received notice from the Electric Power Bureau of their jurisdictions that large industrial companies may limit power to 50% depending on the situation, and all industrial companies below ten kilovolts will suspend production. The current power limit is expected to be three weeks or more.
In Zhejiang, Hangzhou is guiding enterprises to carry out peak shifting and avoiding peaks in an orderly manner, and strictly and orderly implement procedures for electricity use. When electricity peaks come and electricity use becomes tight, it is organizing a group of high energy consumption and high pollution enterprises in 7-9 Centralized maintenance is arranged every month, and the power limit is 20% of the first quarter.
Yunnan has launched two rounds of electricity curtailment actions this year, and zinc and tin smelters have received notices requesting a 25% reduction in electricity consumption. Due to insufficient power supply, the hottest photovoltaic industry chain has also been affected. At present, some silicon plants in Baoshan, Yunnan have been notified of power curtailment. It is understood that Baoshan has built a total of 32 industrial silicon furnaces, and 3 furnaces were shut down in the early morning of August 10 due to power restrictions. So far, Baoshan has shut down 9 furnaces under the influence of three power cuts.
A person in charge of aluminum processing in Chongqing said before that he received an emergency notice to suspend production at two o'clock in the morning on August 3, and the company had to arrange a break early in the morning. In addition, aluminum processing and production require a large number of industrial kilns, and it takes time to increase and decrease the temperature, and the impact of electricity curtailment is great, and even equipment is damaged.
The main reason for such a large-scale power shortage this year is inextricably linked to the supply of coal. As Southwest Hydropower coincides with the dry season, the supply of hydropower is not enough, and the new electricity demand is all flooded to thermal power. The price of coal is very important at this time.
However, due to the recent acceleration of the spread of the new crown epidemic in Mongolia, Ganqimaodu Port, the main Mongolian coal import port, traced the nucleic acid test drivers in accordance with the latest regulations. The port has temporarily suspended the import of coal and is temporarily closed for about two weeks. As soon as the news came out, domestic coal futures immediately rose to the limit!
Recently, the main thermal coal futures contract ZC201 rose 8.00%, the main coke futures contract j2201 soared 7.99%, and the main coking coal futures contract jm2201 soared 7.98%. Coal stocks rose sharply, Shanxi Coking Coal closed its daily limit, and Shanxi Coal International, Pingdingshan Coal, Lanhua Science and Technology, and Yunmei Energy rose more than 6%. The price of coal at the producing area has also begun to rise. 19 coal mines in the producing area have raised their coal prices (some of which have raised their prices more than once), with an average increase of 30-50 yuan/ton. At present, the price of 6000 kcal low-sulfur coal in Yuyang District has reached 980~1000 yuan/ton.
Now that the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" have arrived, coal prices in the production areas are still showing strong, which has played a role in fueling the power curtailment. At the same time, Jiangsu, Anhui and many other places have implemented new peak electricity prices and raised prices. In the future, more regions may be affected.
Insiders believe that from the third quarter of this year to the first quarter of next year's coal peak season, the power shortage dilemma of industrial manufacturing and chemical companies will continue. In the current situation of limited power and production, the power limit and production in the fourth quarter of this year may even be further increased.
